[SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Summary] Spot price of cobalt sulphate drops slightly, with mediocre trading

Refined cobalt:

This week, spot prices of refined cobalt maintained a fluctuating trend. At the beginning of the week, spot prices followed the slight decline in futures prices on the Zhonglianjin market. Mid-week, market sentiment improved slightly under the influence of minor news, leading to a slight rebound in prices. Overall, spot prices of refined cobalt remained stable compared to last week. Supply side, constrained by the relatively low economic viability of refined cobalt production, smelters' operating rates remained low, resulting in a slight decline in refined cobalt supply. Demand side, as the future policy direction in the DRC remains uncertain, downstream producers continued to maintain just-in-time procurement, still digesting social inventory without significant stockpiling. Overall market buying sentiment was sluggish. Before the official policy announcement, spot prices of refined cobalt are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.

Intermediate products:

This week, the low-end spot prices of cobalt intermediate products saw a slight decline, while high-end prices remained stable. Supply side, mainstream mines continued to maintain long-term contract supply, with spot sales still not fully opened, and traders' offers edged lower. Demand side, as the future policy in the DRC remains unclear and prices of cobalt-related products have declined recently, downstream producers maintained a wait-and-see attitude, with weak buying sentiment. Overall, spot trading of cobalt intermediate products was sluggish this week, with both buyers and sellers remaining cautious. Before the official policy announcement, spot prices of cobalt intermediate products are expected to remain stable.

Cobalt sulphate:

This week, spot prices of cobalt sulphate dropped slightly. Supply side, mainstream smelters' quotations saw little change, while some recycling plants' offers declined. Demand side, ternary cathode precursor producers' orders showed no significant recovery, refined cobalt production was cut due to weak economics, and Co3O4 producers were still digesting excessive inventories built earlier. Coupled with uncertainty about future DRC policies, downstream producers generally adopted a wait-and-see approach, remaining cautious with persistently low purchase willingness. Spot trading of cobalt sulphate was extremely sluggish. Before the official policy announcement, spot prices of cobalt sulphate are expected to continue fluctuating weakly.

Cobalt chloride:

This week, spot prices of cobalt chloride pulled back slightly. The supply landscape showed clear structural divergence: leading smelters maintained stable quotations, firmly refusing to budge on prices; a few producers saw low-price transactions, exerting some downward pressure on spot prices. Demand side, downstream enterprises' inventory levels were relatively sufficient, with weak market inquiry activity, maintaining an overall wait-and-see stance. The market's bullish expectations remained highly consistent and stable. Recent market rumors, though from unclear sources, may cause short-term impacts but are unlikely to alter the overall price trend. Spot prices of cobalt chloride are expected to continue fluctuating at highs, with limited room for pullback.

Cobalt salt (Co3O4):

This week, spot prices of Co3O4 continued to pull back. Supply side, post-holiday market activity was weak, with smelters generally lowering quotations and increasing willingness to sell at discounts, further suppressing spot prices with low-priced cargoes. Demand side, LCO producers' procurement focused on essential production, lacking inventory-building intent, generally adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach with clear price-driving sentiment. Market inquiries were sluggish. Next week, terminal procurement sentiment is expected to remain weak, with lackluster demand-side support, and spot prices will likely continue under pressure.

Cobalt powder and others:

This week, cobalt powder prices experienced a slight pullback, but this adjustment failed to noticeably boost orders. Downstream alloy industry demand remained stable, but persistently high tungsten carbide prices kept cost ratios elevated, shifting alloy enterprises' focus more toward tungsten price dynamics and relatively reducing attention on cobalt powder. The market generally maintained a wait-and-see stance. In the near term, the cobalt powder market may continue in the doldrums, with prices unlikely to see significant fluctuations.

Ternary cathode precursor:

This week, prices of 5-series, 6-series, and 8-series ternary cathode precursors continued to decline. Raw material cost side, cobalt sulphate prices kept falling, while nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices remained stable. In the NEV market, domestic 6-series ternary precursor orders grew significantly, mainly due to two factors: relatively strong demand for mid-high nickel products downstream, and the dual advantages of 6-series products in cost and performance, attracting attention from overseas battery cell manufacturers, with some overseas customers currently validating 6-series products. In contrast, 5-series and 8-series products' market shares are gradually shrinking. In the consumer market, demand for small power applications like two-wheelers in Southeast Asia and India performed well, with orders expected to maintain steady growth. Overall, precursor market transactions remained sluggish, with enterprises closely monitoring raw material price movements like cobalt sulphate. In the short term, ternary precursor prices are expected to continue a slight downward trend.

Ternary cathode material:

This week, ternary cathode material prices continued their downward trend. Raw material cost side, cobalt sulphate prices kept declining slightly, nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices held steady temporarily, lithium carbonate rebounded somewhat due to macro sentiment, while lithium hydroxide prices continued to fall noticeably. In the NEV market, June is traditionally the off-season, with auto sales showing mediocre performance. However, some leading battery cell manufacturers' procurement demand for mid-high nickel ternary materials grew noticeably, mainly to stockpile for upcoming new car models and for product validation by overseas battery cell manufacturers. In the consumer market, the consumer electronics industry entered an inventory reduction phase, with orders and production schedules pulling back, while end-use demand remained generally good. In the small power market, demand in Southeast Asia and India performed well, with recent related orders being active. Overall, market transactions were sluggish, with enterprises closely monitoring the impact of DRC trade policies on raw material price trends. In the short term, ternary cathode material prices are expected to continue their downward trend.

LCO:

The LCO market remained stable this week, with mainstream quotations for 4.2V/4.4V/4.5V products dropping to 209,000 yuan/mt, 214,000 yuan/mt, and 225,000 yuan/mt, respectively. Prices were affected by raw material-side lithium carbonate and Co3O4 price movements: battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rebounded slightly recently, while Co3O4 prices continued to decline somewhat, overall having limited impact on LCO prices. Supply side, Co3O4 producers still held ample inventory, with upstream willingness to sell increasing significantly and active price reductions. Demand side, terminal producers were in a battery cell inventory digestion phase, reducing cathode material procurement, with LCO cathode plants purchasing raw materials relatively cautiously. In the short term, LCO prices are expected to remain stable.

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News:    

[MIIT: Supports Automakers' "60-Day Payment Period" Commitment to Promote Healthy Industry Development] Recently, 17 key automakers including FAW, Dongfeng, GAC, and Seres issued statements committing to "payment periods not exceeding 60 days." Today (12th), MIIT officials stated that automakers' commitments are significant for promoting healthy and sustainable development of the automotive industry. MIIT officials noted that automakers' voluntary commitment to "payment periods not exceeding 60 days" reflects proactive response to national calls and fulfillment of social responsibility, playing an important role in building a collaborative "automaker-parts" development ecosystem. MIIT officials also stated that China's NEV industry is currently at a critical stage of high-quality development, hoping enterprises will lead by example and strengthen industry self-discipline. They also called for societal support for high-quality NEV industry development and joint resistance against online chaos like "internet trolls" and "black PR" to foster a positive, orderly development environment. (Cailian Press)
[CITIC Securities: Automotive Industry Enters a New Stage of High-Quality Development in Response to Policies] CITIC Securities' research report points out that on June 10, multiple automakers, including GAC, Dongfeng, Seres, Geely, and BYD, responded to the State Council's "Regulation on Ensuring Payments to Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises" and the CAAM's initiative, committing to unify the payment terms for suppliers to within 60 days to accelerate capital turnover in the industry chain and ensure the stability of the supply chain. Previously, the procurement payment terms for large automakers generally exceeded 60 days, exacerbating the risks of capacity expansion and price wars. This move not only responds to the policies but will also fundamentally promote the high-quality development of the automotive industry and drive positive changes in the industry chain.
[Shenyang: Five Activities Including Home Appliance Trade-in to Be Suspended from 24:00 on June 30] The Shenyang Municipal Bureau of Commerce issued an announcement on adjusting some trade-in activities for consumer goods. From 00:00 on June 13, the subsidy qualification application portals on platforms such as Liaoshitong and WeChat will be temporarily closed, and unified to the portals of UnionPay and JD.com. Meanwhile, the subsidy qualification application time for three activities, including home appliance trade-in, purchase subsidies for new mobile phones, tablets, and smart watches (bands), and home renovation and kitchen/bathroom "refresh," will be adjusted to 9:00 to 12:00 daily. The subsidy quotas for each portal will be issued on a daily basis, on a first-come, first-served basis, and will end once the quota is exhausted for the day. From 24:00 on June 30, five activities, including home appliance trade-in, purchase subsidies for new mobile phones, tablets, and smart watches (bands), home renovation and kitchen/bathroom "refresh," e-bike trade-in, and automotive replacement and upgrade, will be suspended. The resumption time of the activities will be announced separately.

SMM New Energy Research Team

Wang Cong 021-51666838

Ma Rui 021-51595780

Lin Ziya 86-2151666902

Feng Disheng 021-51666714

Lv Yanlin 021-20707875

Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711

Wang Zihan 021-51666914

Wang Jie 021-51595902

Zhang Haohan 021-51666752

Chen Bolin 021-51666836

Xu Mengqi 021-20707868